Un futuro proiettato sul presente: Le previsioni e le aspettative degli Italiani

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Nuovo appuntamento con l’Osservatorio Scienza e Società, un’iniziativa di Observa – Science in Society in collaborazione con Tuttoscienzetecnologia de La Stampa, Superquark e Quark

Prevale nettamente la previsione di un futuro peggiore rispetto al presente, specie fra le nuove generazioni, ma la scienza e la tecnologia riscuotono fiducia e svolgono un ruolo positivo nella spinta verso il miglioramento.

Questo periodo dell’anno, tradizionalmente votato a bilanci e previsioni, offre una buona occasione per riflettere sul ruolo della scienza e della tecnologia nella costruzione del nostro futuro. Per una volta però lasceremo da parte il parere degli esperti e prenderemo in considerazione il punto di vista della gente comune.
Iniziamo dunque analizzando il quadro generale delle aspettative che gli Italiani nutrono verso il futuro.
Scopriamo così, forse senza grande sorpresa, che viviamo un presente segnato da un dilagante pessimismo: solo il 23% ritiene che le cose andranno meglio nei prossimi cinquanta anni, mentre oltre la metà si attende un peggioramento. Per quasi un Italiano su cinque poi nulla cambierà.
Le previsioni diventano man mano più negative al diminuire dell’età, cosicché i più giovani risultano anche quelli più pessimisti riguardo al futuro. Questo orientamento si concentra soprattutto nella fascia d’età compresa fra i 20 e i 29 anni (per il 65,6% le cose andranno peggio, contro il 47,3% di chi ha 65 anni o più); fra gli intervistati ancora più giovani (15 – 19 anni) pare invece emergere un atteggiamento più interpretabile come rassegnazione o disillusione dal momento che quasi un terzo ritiene che non ci sarà nessun cambiamento.

Ma i dati più interessanti riguardano le cause associate alle diverse previsioni. I due fattori che, nel bene e nel male, entrano in gioco con maggiore frequenza hanno a che vedere, da un lato, con la scienza e la tecnologia, dall’altro con l’inquinamento.
La maggioranza di chi immagina un miglioramento lo attribuisce infatti al progresso scientifico e tecnologico, una quota che pesa sul totale del campione praticamente il doppio di quella che, al contrario, vede nella perdita della nostra capacità di controllo sulla tecnoscienza la principale causa del peggioramento dell’attuale situazione (11,5% contro 6,6%).
Nel caso dell’inquinamento si verifica l’opposto: mentre la previsione del suo aumento rappresenta il principale fattore di deterioramento della qualità della vita e dell’ambiente, la sua diminuzione viene indicata come elemento trainante del miglioramento solo dal 18,9% di coloro i quali guardano avanti con ottimismo.
Un ruolo di rilievo spetta infine anche all’economia, soprattutto fra chi si attende un peggioramento; a maggior ragione se poi si considera che lo sviluppo o l’ulteriore arretramento dei paesi poveri possono essere a loro volta interpretati in chiave economica.

Se dunque scienza e tecnologia confermano di essere due elementi costitutivi dell’immaginario collettivo e sembrano per di più figurare in termini abbastanza positivi, vale la pena di vedere a quali settori di ricerca vengono attribuite maggiori possibilità di successo.
Le visioni del futuro sono popolate, come è noto, di innovazioni e di scoperte che incarnano i nostri desideri al di là della loro plausibilità scientifica e tecnica. In questa prospettiva le previsioni avanzate dagli Italiani sfumano nelle loro speranze.
Non sorprende quindi che venga attribuita alla sconfitta del cancro la maggiore probabilità di realizzarsi da oltre la metà degli intervistati, mentre circa un quarto immagina che nel giro di cinquanta anni disporremo di fonti energetiche pulite e rinnovabili.
La parte rimanente del campione si distribuisce abbastanza equamente fra le altre possibilità di risposta, assegnando comunque una leggera preminenza alla capacità di prevedere in modo accurato l’avvento di catastrofi naturali. La clonazione dell’uomo, l’avvento di robot in grado di sbrigare autonomamente le faccende domestiche e la conquista di Marte restano invece sullo sfondo, nettamente staccati.
Fra le donne cresce la percentuale di chi ha scelto la sconfitta del cancro (54,5% rispetto al 49,6% degli uomini), mentre gli uomini hanno dato maggiore importanza alle innovazioni in campo energetico (il 27,3% le definisce come probabili rispetto al 22,5% delle donne). Le donne, inoltre, mettono al terzo posto la capacità di previsione delle catastrofi naturali, mentre gli uomini la mettono in ultima posizione dando invece maggiori probabilità di successo alla clonazione (quasi l’8%).
Anche l’età interviene come elemento discriminante, confermando che le nuove generazioni tendono ad essere più visionarie e un po’ meno concrete, nonostante il loro disincanto verso le prospettive di miglioramento futuro. Sono infatti i più giovani a riconoscere maggiore credibilità allo sbarco su Marte o all’avvento di robot intelligenti, oppure alla clonazione dell’uomo, pur riservando comunque i primi posti alla sconfitta del cancro e alla scoperta di nuove fonti energetiche.
Ulteriori differenze emergono considerando il livello d’istruzione e l’orientamento religioso; così, la sconfitta del cancro viene indicata soprattutto dai cattolici e dalle persone meno scolarizzate, mentre la scoperta di energie pulite e illimitate riscuote maggiori consensi fra i non credenti e fra chi possiede un elevato titolo di studio.
Al di là delle diversità rimane tuttavia un messaggio forte e chiaro rivolto al mondo della ricerca: la speranza di poterne presto riconoscere l’utilità nella vita di ogni giorno.

L’articolo è stato pubblicato il 28 dicembre 2005 sull’inserto Tuttoscienzetecnologia del quotidiano La Stampa.

La rilevazione è stata condotta tramite interviste telefoniche con metodo CATI su un campione di 1021 casi, stratificato per genere, età e ripartizione geografica, rappresentativo della popolazione italiana con età uguale o superiore ai 15 anni.Maggiori dettagli nelle note metodologiche (in pdf)

E tu cosa ne pensi? Ritieni che le cose andranno meglio nei prossimi cinquanta anni, oppure ti attendi un peggioramento? Perché? E quale evento secondo te avrà maggiore probabilità di realizzarsi in futuro? La sconfitta del cancro? La previsione accurata delle catastrofi naturali? la clonazione dell’uomo? Lo sbarco dell’uomo su Marte? Oppure qualcos’altro? Esprimi la tua opinione o commenta i risultati emersi dall’Osservatorio, sul nuovo Forum Scienza e Società on-line

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